I've seen it claimed (and I tend to believe) that the speed of social change is roughly proportional to the speed of communication between people. Over the past four decades, the speed of interpersonal communication has increased enormously. It would be strange if this didn't reflect on society.
I think this is true, but I think it is unwise to project too smoothly into the future. For example, speed of communication may have been a limiting factor to social change up to the present, which would explain the strong link between speed of communicaiton and speed of change. But once communication gets fast enough other limiting factors may become more significant, so the two factors would decouple, with comunication speeds whizzing off, but social change now lagging behind, with other brakes now affecting it.
And this applies to other technical effects too. For example at one time food production was what limited population, but once technology allowed increased food, other limiting factors (contraception, female emancipation) which had been unforeseen, came into the picture.
IOW as someone born in 1961 (coincidentally) I don't think my life has changed as much as the technology that supports my life has, and I don't expect it to change quite as radically as you sggest in the next 42 years.
However, I am intensely curious, and I hope I live long enough to know one way or another.
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branchandroot
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Date: 2003-10-07 03:47 am (UTC)I think this is true, but I think it is unwise to project too smoothly into the future. For example, speed of communication may have been a limiting factor to social change up to the present, which would explain the strong link between speed of communicaiton and speed of change. But once communication gets fast enough other limiting factors may become more significant, so the two factors would decouple, with comunication speeds whizzing off, but social change now lagging behind, with other brakes now affecting it.
And this applies to other technical effects too. For example at one time food production was what limited population, but once technology allowed increased food, other limiting factors (contraception, female emancipation) which had been unforeseen, came into the picture.
IOW as someone born in 1961 (coincidentally) I don't think my life has changed as much as the technology that supports my life has, and I don't expect it to change quite as radically as you sggest in the next 42 years.
However, I am intensely curious, and I hope I live long enough to know one way or another.